But what if...

 

The questions that will increasingly be asked is, what if the virus mutates faster than the science evolves around the vaccines. It is possible, after all there are, as noted previously, plenty of other viruses that do not have vaccines, one in particular comes to mind in HIV. 

We have plenty of coping mechanisms for HIV including prophylactic treatments and several drug treatments of the virus that, in the main, prevent full blown AIDS which can lead to death of which, I believe, the largest cause of death is TB. At least that's the case in wealthy western societies but there are still 700,000> AIDS related deaths each year down from a high of 1.4m. But still quite a significant number all things considered.

So the same might become true of Covid. It is something that has been contemplated right from the start of the pandemic. Different countries have adopted different tactics. One western country determined that lockdowns and rigid restrictions were unnecessary and all that was required was a public information campaign, but they have since relented as the virus didn't seem to get the memo! 

Other countries have adopted the 'fingers in ears' approach and decided it's not a real thing and if they simply ignore it everything will be fine. The gravediggers in those countries have never had so much work!

From a Noddy does science perspective, this is all good information for moving forward, albeit perhaps  as welcome as finding some useful data amongst Mengele's notes and studies, which however distasteful, has been done, after all, you cannot 'unlearn' something and then try to learn it again in an ethical way. The same will be true of Covid I suspect. Especially if we find that the virus does keep 'escaping' the vaccines. I am hopeful that it will not be the case but who knows.

And of course the more people that deny the existence of the virus, are are opposed to vaccinations for one of a handful of reasons, some understandable, some cuckoo crazy, then the more the opportunity for the virus to do what viruses like to do which is mutate and experiment on the host. Not that they do it with any thought, after all, they don't have brains! 

But then they don't really need brains because their human petri dishes do have brains and large numbers of them determine to continue cooperating with the virus and so do the thinking for the virus and further extend the duration. I'll leave it to others to decide on individual basis' as to what these people are; anything from ignorant to psychopaths to alternate fact believers but who knows...again!

Anyway, that aside. It might be argued the progress of the human race is at stake. We develop new things, new ideas, new technologies because there might be a market for these things and if there is a market then then they will sell and make profits and therefore there will be investment to look for them. That, at a very basic level is how we progress. 

Other methods have been available and tried but the capitalist method has tended to contribute the greatest progress. Progress being a point of view and of course the next progress will be the one that cleans up the mess left behind by the last progress. As ever, I meander aimlessly from the opening premise.

So what if the virus does mutate faster than the vaccines can be developed.Then I guess we just have to develop a coping strategy. 

Economics will determine that life moves back to what we might regard as normality. After all, we cannot continue in the manner we are at present with lockdowns and huge restrictions. If that were attempted then the death toll from associated impacts might soon overtake the deaths from the virus itself. This might come from suicide, death from starvation, death from untreated but treatable illnesses but more likely the greatest number of deaths might eventually come from social conflict brought about by the ever greater wealth divide due to economic restrictions.

Governments and organisations around the world all have this in their background thinking, if not their forefront thinking. At some point economics will dictate that people have to go back to work in mass numbers. If the current vaccines work and the virus mutates at a friendly rate ie a rate that can be managed and vaccines can be developed to treat the mutations, say, annually like the flu vaccines, then all will be good and we will move back to a form of normality. I doubt it will be completely what we regard as normal but time will tell.

If the virus does not play nice or if another virus emerges then there will be a modified approach although still, a return to a full worldwide trading environment will happen in the near future.

It is conceivable that everybody has to accept the virus is a part of life. That it will be with us and there is nothing we can do about it. Certainly efforts would continue to find solutions but in the meantime life would return to a normality of some description. But that normality would accept that people will catch the virus, some will die and some will have lifelong illnesses to contend with as a result of having had the virus.

What if that came to pass? 

Perhaps we would need special units where the most sick are 'stored' and treated as best as possible until either death or recuperation. In effect that is what a large number of hospitals, certainly in the west, have become with many wards and operating theatres being repurposed as temporary ICUs. 

But if it is determined we have to live with the disease then perhaps we will need to build new units specifically for the purpose of handling those that require induced comas, intubation and constant turning whilst on a host of medical devices aiding their breathing and providing air and nourishment automatically until a change, one way or another, is detected.

What about offices. There is a long overdue move towards remote working which is a good thing, in my opinion, but it also requires balance. There are things that happen when groups of people are physically close to one another that cannot happen when everybody is on video call. 

For instance, I have always been a strong advocate of the 'management by walking about' approach which has always told a manager more about what's really happening than a thousand reports and conference calls. And, the benefits of ad-hoc watercooler meetings and chats is massively more beneficial to companies than strict controlled breaks and/or homeworking. 

That said, there are online versions of watercooler chats and they do also work but they tend to be directed chats rather than chats that occur, and are informative, by chance. Technology can and does have solutions for that but it will not be the same. Although, we will adapt.

But what about offices themselves. they will still exist and just  yesterday I noticed the amount of new office space is continuing to grow even during lockdown and the number of enquiries about office space is at a high, in London at least, probably with an eye to the end of the pandemic in mind. If my alternate premise comes to pass then maybe that will change, or maybe not.

Can organisations force people to come to an office. Yep, they probably can, it will be up to each individual to ensure they are as safe as possible to come into an office. People might be expected to ensure they are as physically fit and healthy as they possibly can be such that working in an office and potentially catching the virus is just something to live with like eating too many doughnuts, becoming obese and potentially dying as a consequence whether from heart disease or diabetes or cancer.

Maybe the virus will have some equivalence with smoking, except its not optional. More likely the above equivalence with sugar is more appropriate. Or even more equivalent might be HIV. Government and heath advisors will tell people the best way to protect themselves, the consequences of not doing so and then leave it up to individuals. I know it cannot be completely equated to any of these things but it might just have to be something that is educated and managed in society so that society can get back to standard economic trading.

I suspect there will be other changes and technological advancements in this new world of post virus acceptance and accomodation. Maybe we will determine not simply to wear simple surgical masks, or more exquisite types from full biological warfare kits to old t-shirts with rubber bands, but instead the majority of people will wear an oxygen filtration unit when in enclosed spaces, including in offices and shops. Given the state of air pollution in many cities and the resulting consequential health issues and costs then perhaps individual air scrubbers are not a bad idea anyway!

Also, the law will get involved somewhere along the line. There are already some cases pending in a whole range of potential compensation areas. One has recently been ticked off in the UK in regard of business insurance being covered for being forced to close during the lockdowns. This in itself will feedback into the system and will lead to both higher insurance costs and/or excluding clauses in policies. 

But what about those shops and offices and the workers effectively forced to come in to work and serve? What if an individual catches the virus and becomes sick and/or dies and the weight of evidence determines the office or shop was where the individual caught the virus. Will there be a liability for the business owner? If so then I expect we will see the cost benefit analysis resulting in enhanced air cleaning products that kill viruses such as UV filtration systems or HEPA systems in place in offices and shops together with more compartmentalised working which was more common in the sixties but has long been eschewed for open plan office spaces. 

But offices will change if the cost of doing nothing outweighs the cost of doing something. Or, governments set legal requirements, but that would depend upon the flavour of government in place at any given time. Alternatively, organisations might see it as a benefit for attracting the best people by offering the very safest and cleanest working environments.

And air travel? Maybe the same will happen on aircraft, maybe everybody that flies will have a duty to wear a mask, whether provided by the airline or something they have to bring themselves. And it would be a contract between the parties such that non-compliance will result in flying bans and other penalties for non-compliance just as with smoking. 

The simpler approach already suggested and even being prepared for in some countries is the need for a vaccine passport before travel. Which is great if the vaccines work, but again, in the post virus acceptance world then maybe that would be the bare minimum that the individual customer had done as much as possible but extra precautions were mandated.

And for those in society who will not or cannot wear masks? Time will tell how society will deal with them. Although the thought of non mask wearing colonies with a bell ringer leading them when they move from place to place is probably just my vivid imagination, merging with historic fact!

I suspect in this new world where we accept Covid as a fact of life, and death, there will considerable effort put into finding antiretroviral treatments as with HIV and also considerable studies to determine what makes an individual more likely to become seriously sick or die from the virus, possibly genetic tests if a particular genetic mix is seen as a marker to poor outcomes.

Overall, if we have to live with the virus because it becomes too slippery to control and manage then perhaps we will see anything upto 70m deaths from the disease every year. That would be a lot, in fact it would be 10m more pa than the top ten causes of death pa worldwide with, by far, the largest being doughnut eating cardiovascular disease at c.18m followed by all doughnut eating cancers at c.9m and then a big drop to the rest around 3m each and then dropping further to numerous causes in the c.1m deaths pa worldwide for many other causes, but mainly doughnuts!

70m pa would be a lot to just accept and I suggest and suspect the science will evolve and bring that number down just as it has with other health issues.

But we will see........