World leaders?

Good to see that Donald Trump has some good old common sense and has kindly decided to stop referring to Covid-19 as the Chinese Virus. Although he retains the right to do so if he so wishes. That goodwill gesture came after some people in China called some people in Washington and asked nicely if the President might refrain from such terminology. That was followed by a call between Xi and Trump. A call that was, of course great.

Having said that. As we know that neither of these men are really great sentimentalists but they are both kinda keen on nationalism and waving big sticks at each other so I suspect the call was more along the lines of 'you need to stop, right now, or we'll take actions that will hurt your economy and with it your reelection'! Like maybe a freeze on buying any more grain products or pork for instance. Who really knows, except we know that Trump loves goading people and feels he is the master of everything he views so to simply stop calling the virus the Chinese virus there is a reason and it is not out of any kindness to the PRC or indeed any Asian Americans who are mere cannon fodder to his xenophobic bluster.

As for his chances of reelection, well, you would think that his incredible incompetence would mean that he was halfway out the door already, but the opinion polls, certainly the ones worth worrying about are actually showing that his ratings are improving. I guess we will have to see what happens but I can't help feeling that if he continues to try talking down the virus impact on human lives then he will go down in history as the Nero of America only those weird little hands certainly can't play a fiddle.

The stock market will be interesting. After all he has a large following amongst older Americans and their pensions are somewhat linked to the stock market, one way or another. But then it is also the demographic that is most at risk or death should they contract Covid-19 and as they also seem to have this cultish belief in Trump then all things considered their pension might be the last thing on their collective minds in a few months time.

But if Trump supporters do look to the state of the Dow or Nasdaq as guides to the health of the country and the capability of the President then I suspect they will not be so happy come November. I guess it has to be remembered what a share price actually is, it is simply the belief that the company being invested in will return increasing growth, profits and, most importantly, dividends. This is based upon such things as track record, management team and their track record and trifling things like productivity. But in a world where recession is looking likely on a global scale in 2020 then everybody will pause and take stock of, well, their stock! And in those good old fashioned simple terms, if there are more sellers than buyers, the value will, as is already evident, sink!

The stimulus' (stimuli??) being unleashed around the world have had some positive effects on the stock markets but even pumping in the odd trillion dollars here and there does not necessarily underpin that core belief. The belief in the future profitability and growth of the company being invested in. So even after a positive push upwards following each of the stimulus packages I suspect the air will continue to leak out of the world stock markets. That will continue until the pandemic has eased, border restrictions have started to be lifted, travel starts to pick up, planes start flying and we can pop to the supermarket without fearing that we'll be dead within two weeks because we touched a loose banana!

After that, companies will be assessed on how well they survived this hibernation period and the plans they have for driving forward and indeed whether they have the people to drive the managements plans forward. From an economics perspective, it will generate another thousand books for at least the next decade. Whether any of those books will sufficiently prepare the world for the next virus we will only know in a decade of so when the next strain of the virus, or a completely new and as yet unnamed virus, comes along.

As a final aside, Trump is by no means the biggest dick on the world stage at this time. That prize I will personally award to Bolsonaro. A population of 200m+ with many living in poverty conditions in shanty towns around the main cities that might be considered a breeding ground for viral infections (or indeed any number of diseases that are endemic in such living conditions). But heh, it's ok, because according to this 'world leader', Brazilians are immune to such viral infections because they are known for their ability to be able to dive into raw sewage and come out unscathed, apart from the typhoid, cholera and hepatitis they pick up! Let's see how his Cnut style approach to Covid-19 works out for his reelection aspirations in 2022 assuming he gets that far!