Hong Kong Phooey!

One wonders what exactly the world would or should or could do about China.

What exactly will 'the world' do when the puppet government in Hong Kong cracks down upon the protesters that have been on the streets for several months now. The level of violence from both sides has increased and the protesters, particularly the student protesters, are now, I think it is fair to say, radicalised. It is almost as though they want martyrs for the world to look upon and act on. But the world will almost certainly not do so.

Hong Kong has a population of c.8 million people. Sounds a lot. But China has already shown that big numbers don't scare them. For a start the population of China itself is c1.4 billion so Hong Kong is not even 1% of the population. Not to mention the PLA has a standing army that numbers at least 2 million and then there are reservists after that!

And for those that think China, or at least the Communist Party or China, will not do anything about such large numbers of people well they need just look north of China and consider the Uighur people in Xinjiang!

The Uighur population of 11 million with 1 million in 'education' camps that have a distinct whiff of colonialism about them. It's not like the west can cry foul and pretend they have not done the same thing, we have! Not even the Germans have the monopoly on such camps although they took things to a terrible conclusion. But the British have tried them a few times in history, the Boer war being, probably, the most notorious but they existed in other parts of the 'Empire' at different times and for different reasons including in Northern Ireland during 'The Troubles'! I guess one of the differences is, we have learned that such practices are firstly, counterproductive and secondly in a democratic society the wrongs will haunt the country and future governments for decades to come.

The arguments are always the same. There is a terrorist problem and putting the potential terrorists in camps, controlling their every movement and moment of existence, stops the terrorism. It does, for a while. It also builds up such resistance that it has an annoying habit of causing even more terrorism with even greater number of terrorists (or freedom fighters) who now have an even greater cause to fight for, even more grievances to air and the process of 'education' generates a feeling of having nothing to lose. So the well trodden path that China is treading will only cause it greater problems. Or, it will take the path that a few have taken over the centuries and then perhaps, but it is still only a perhaps, the rest of the world will take some action.

Of course, in a non-democratic society then there is no such problem unless or until the tyranny of totalitarianism is changed by the people. Unfortunately such changes tend to take a long time, cost many lives, cause regimes to lash out both internally and externally. With external lashes being to distract from what is happening internally and acting as a cover to both repress and to incite nationalism to a perceived enemy.

There was a time when things looked so much better for China and the rest of the world..Jintao and Zemin made changes that whilst not exactly a step in the direction of democracy they certainly opened China up to more interaction with the rest of the world and such contact has been positive to both parties.

And that is only to scratch the surface of the position the world has found itself in.

The complexity is far greater than anything that has ever existed before. China has huge and complex military might. It has growing ties, both military and economic, with Russia which is rather too historically uncomfortable. China also has a number of bits of unfinished business, Hong Kong being only a prelude. The island forming in the seas off China, but somewhat closer to other countries in the region from Vietnam to Indonesia, and the declaration of exclusive zones around these islands with military bases now permanent features is one more step.

The Belt and Road initiative is effectively creating a huge network of ports that will end up having military ties and uses because the PLA is simply the extension of the CPC. If you add to these little matters the fact that China has huge investments in countries around the world including effectively being in a deadly embrace with the US$.

There are countries in the Belt and Road initiative that are now hugely indebted to China and you can be sure that, one way or another, China will get what it wants from these debtor nations. And that will almost certainly not be money, it will more likely be ownership of ports and facilities and areas around ports. It is not hugely dissimilar to the way the East India company opened up Asian trade routes in the 16-19th Centuries. And when these companies needed to protect their trade the British government was only too willing to assist.

So lets imagine that China has financed the building of a port and an airport in some small rather poor country somewhere in the world. Undoubtedly the deal would have been agreed in smokey backrooms and millions of greasing dollars would have ended up in accounts not directly linked to the infrastructure building but such is life. The infrastructures gets built. The nation state is indebted. The already poor people find they are now even poorer and having to pay interest payments they never knew anything about and the government of this little country is brought down and replaced. The new government cries foul because they say the previous government acted illegally and was corrupt and therefore the declare the deal null and void. Well, that was easy. Except of course it will not be so easy, because if the CPC takes the path of the British (or Portuguese, Dutch, French etc etc) from centuries past then you can expect to see PLA forces taking control of what the CPC declares is its property having funded it, built it and not been paid. It's about as fair as having your house repossessed by the mortgage company if you don't keep up the payments.

What then will the world do. What then can the world do. Unless China alters course, which it will not under the leadership (for life) of Xi Jinping, there is bound to be a bit of a tiff somewhere down the line. And when there is, you can be assured that other countries will take advantage of the trouble. Not least Russia and North Korea and, if it were at all possible, that's even more worrying!