It's just like Chess, but not that awful musical!


Ladies and gentlemen, roll up, roll up, roll up. We have for you one of the finest, most audacious, most malodorous shows you will ever have had the confusion to watch. Or, for the more initiated one of the most complete shows of manipulation you have had the pleasure, or displeasure depending upon your viewpoint, shows that ever you did see.

Whether you like, or dislike, BoJo. Whether you trust him or wouldn't ask him to feed your cat for one night while you go and watch a show in town. Whether you think 'Johnson' is an all to apt expression about the man and his penchant for accidentally putting his hands on knees other than his own. Or whether you think he is really quite such a bumbling buffoon that it is entirely possible for him to put his hands on his own thigh and simply miss, is completely up to you.

What is almost undeniable is that he, or maybe the dark evil creature that looks a little like something that lives in a cave and craves a magical ring standing who stands behind his throne, is about to pull off some of the most wonderful political theatre of all time in any country at any time ever.

British politics at this time is very much like a game of chess with move after move being made to determine a specific outcome which might or might not be about Brexit. Politics is not always such an intricate intellectual game but at this time, in this moment it is and to the casual observer, at least a casual observer who has a deep grasp of what the hell is going on, this is a game currently being won by BoJo and only the most adroit of adversaries will manage to turn the tide of the current board.

Having managed to weasel (or artfully mastered, your call) his way into, arguably, the most powerful position of power in the land. An unelected PM has assembled an unelected cabinet to set out an untested manifesto based on nothing but the result of a flawed and potentially disastrous vote by 'the people' on the most highly complex subject of economic theory that but a handful will actually have understood but the consequences of which will affect them all.

Now, having stated that, one way or another 'do or die' the UK will leave the EU on the 31st October, BoJo has either set himself up for a huge fall onto his big fat ugly face or... he's pulled off a masterstroke. The parliament which represents the people, except of course that current representation may or may not be quite in tune, has compelled through law that the PM cannot permit the UK to leave the EU without a deal on his deadline. The EU has offered and deal and it has been rejected. A current deal resides with the EU which will not be acceptable and so will be rejected. Even if it was acceptable, it might not be acceptable to the majority of parliament so might still fail.

That being the case, BoJo is compelled to ask for yet another extension which would, apart from continuing the farce for a few more months would end his, very brief stint as PM. But this is, in part, where the chess game is far more intricate than at first appears. BoJo, or his advisers at least, believe there is a way of circumventing the bill and still falling out of the EU on the 31st regardless. But, to prevent the mechanism being leaked and therefore potentially plugged, very few people know what the mechanism is.

Or...

There is no way around the bill that prevents exit without a deal and the ruse being put about that a mechanism exists is simply twofold. Firstly to make the EU negotiators think really hard before rejecting the current deal presented by BoJo and secondly bolstering support for his 'do or die' approach.

And, everybody in parliament now wants a general election. Except they all want an election when the time is right for them. But right now, the timing is with BoJo all the way. If the deal is accepted and an election is called, he will almost certainly win due to his having completed something nobody else seemed capable of doing. If the deal is rejected it will be the EU fault for having not been willing to accept compromise and, if there is a clever feint activated to leave on the 31st and we do, then he still wins as he did as he said and anyway it is the EUs fault. If the EU rejects the deal and we are set for an extension and somehow it is enacted and somehow he retains power then he is still likely to win as he will be seen as a victim of the constraints of power of parliament and will get a majority of like minded parliamentarians at the next election to deal with things properly.

The last of these is less certain, especially with the Brexit party getting involved but even so, the likelihood of them making a big difference dwindles with every passing day. The Labour party is completely stuffed by having seats in both Remain and Leave constituencies and so is trying to walk a tightrope except it is like a Wile E. Coyote tightrope that has long since disappeared and Labour is simply walking in air waiting for the moment of realization where gravity is permitted to take control and send it tumbling to the ground. The Liberal party at least have a clear stance, they are fervently for Remain but if the act is already done their relevance will be as pointless as that of the Brexit party.

In all scenarios, at this time, the balance of power is with BoJo. It might not seem that way, but it is. Just like a chess match does not seem to be a few moves from checkmate for the majority of people, for those that are well versed in the game, it can be seen to be almost up, but as with chess, while there are still moves to make, there is still a game on.

Let's see what happens next! 

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's Terminal!

Does a trite saying ever answer a question, any question!

Economic Collapse II - Revenge of the Dark Overlord!